Introduction The US housing market has hit a surprising “sweet spot” in mid-February 2026. According to Freddie Mac’s latest data from February 12, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dipped to 6.09%. Combined with wage gains that are finally outpacing home price growth, the Housing Affordability Index is at its highest point since early 2022.
Inventory vs. Price Stagnation While the median home price reached a January high of $396,800, the pace of growth has stalled. J.P. Morgan predicts national home prices will hit 0% growth for the remainder of 2026. This stagnation, paired with a 20% year-over-year increase in inventory, has shifted the power dynamic. For the first time in years, buyers have the leverage to demand inspections and repairs without being outbid by “all-cash” institutional offers.
The Regional Divergence
- The West Coast & Sun Belt: Prices are falling the most here due to a post-pandemic construction glut.
- The Northeast & Midwest: Prices remain resilient as supply lags behind demand.
- Builder Strategy: Homebuilders are now offering rate buydowns as a standard incentive, often lowering a buyer’s effective rate to the mid-5% range to move new inventory.